This scenario, which would result in 4.3C of heating, is known as "business as usual", because it assumes no measures are taken to address the climate crisis.īut some are sceptical. RCP6 has emissions peaking in 2080.īut when newspapers report on the effects of the climate emergency, they mostly use the most extreme of the pathways, RCP8.5. Under RCP4.5, emissions need to peak in 2040, keeping heating between 2C and 3C. To achieve this scenario, global emissions would have had to peak in 2020. With RCP2.6, each square metre of the planet would be warmed by 2.6 watts by 2100, the equivalent of around 1.8C of global heating. Each pathway tracks the likely consequences of a particular volume of greenhouse gas emissions. (IPCC) sketched out four possible scenarios for climate breakdown, called Representative Concentration Pathways A number of potential trajectories that the climate could follow according to our best scientific knowledge. In 2014, scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A UN body tasked with researching climate breakdown and coming up with recommendations for states to follow. He argues that all these predictions are based on a worst-case scenario that is less and less likely to come true. ![]() They are also known as hurricanes and typhoons, depending on their location., and Nigeria will be stricken with famine.īut science writer Tom Chivers A freelance science writer who is also Science Editor at heterodox British magazine UnHerd. Just this week, it has been reported that by 2030, crop yields in Australia could drop by as much as 50%, Madrid will face droughts and tropical cyclones A huge, devastating storm. Reading the papers, the outlook certainly looks bleak. UN officials and world leaders have queued up to denounce humanity's progress on climate breakdown, warning of dire consequences if we do not make immediate changes. If one phrase has dominated COP26 Cop stands for Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change so far, it is "business as usual". ![]() Mental Health resources Reading levels 3-5. ![]()
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